ThruxBets

Just one selection before the action kicks off at York, and it’s only 20 odd miles down the road in East Yorkshire …

4.00 Beverley Paul Midgley has won this race 3 times in the last several years and think HOVER ON THE WIND has a great chance of adding to that record. The 6yo comes back off a little break which won’t inconvinience him at all and May looks to be the time of year to catch him with a record of 31312. His last win on the turf was one of those 1’s in May and came over C&D off 72. He runs off 70 today which should be within his capabilites, especially with conditions to suit. At the time of writing there’s only 3 points seperating the first 6 in the market so happy enough to take the 13/2 and extra place on offer with Sky.

HOVER ON THE WIND // 0.5pt E/W @ 13/2 (SkyBet) 4 Places

Not many bets on here recently but I did enjoy watching the action at Chester and the O’Brien / Moore angle that I highlighted really paid dividends with all five of their horses winning.

The focus this week goes from the Roodee to the Knavesmire with the excellent Dante meeting kicking off on Wednesday.

Before that though there’s two other Yorkshire meetings to look at and I think there’s a couple of bets for me at Catterick on Monday.

2.30 Catterick I respect the chances of Mount Ruapehu but I’m taking him on here with KINGS MERCHANT. I love a class dropper and Phil Kirby’s 5yo drops into a class 6 for the first time in his career. Hasn’t won for almost 2 years (Sep 23) but that was in a class 3 off 82 and is off just 65 today. This is only his 2nd start at 7f on turf but has shaped recently like 7f may be within his capabilities, especially with this ease in grade. Will to have a punt at 9/1.

KINGS MERCHANT // 0.5pt E/W @ 9/1 (Paddy Power) 4 places

4.00 Catterick I’ve plumped for IRISH DANCER in this 5f sprint on the basis that the 6yo is the best of a bad bunch. In all honesty, it’s a pretty stinking race. There’s 11 runners in this and a quick scan down their recent form shows that in their last 77 races combined, they’ve managed just 2 wins between them. IRISH DANCER doesn’t have a ‘1’ next to his name but he’s got a good chance here back on turf, running well enough LTO behind a rival who subsequently won NTO?! His form at this grade, in these conditions over 5f in the last 18 months is 1422142. Surely he’s got to be trying to win this for a second year in a row?!

IRISH DANCER // 1.5pts Win @ 9/4 (Bet365)

I think I‘ve mentioned on Twitter/X before that you can quite happily swerve Aiden O’Brien’s runners in the UK in April. His record just isn’t great, infact, April is his worst month for winners.

He’s had just 6 winners from 84 runners, a strike rate of 7% – way below what he operates at during the rest of the year. If you’d simply laid all his UK runners in April over the seasons, you’d actually be sitting on a tidy +40 LSP.

BUT, this all changes – historically, at least – in May when, for whatever reason, Ballydoyle fly into action.

If April is a write off, May is the complete opposite. It’s comfortably the yard’’s best month of the UK season: 93 winners from 370 runners, a hefty 25% strike rate, and a +58 LSP just backing them blind.

However – and this is where it gets really interesting – the standout driver behind those numbers appears to be the Chester May Festival.

The table below show’s the difference between races at May other than at Chester, compared to just the three days at the festival … an absolutely staggering difference.

The win strike rate jumps from 18% to 43%, the place strike rate nearly doubles, and LSP swings from a small loss to a huge +64 profit from just 109 bets – that’s a 59% ROI.

This is a meeting the O’Brien team clearly target as the results over the years show:

Dig a little deeper, though, and it gets even more eye-catching.

When Ryan Moore rides for the yard at this meeting, the numbers are borderline absurd: a 63% strike rate, +47 LSP, and an ROI of 83%. Their performance at no other festival comes close to these sort of figures.

At the time of writing, the combination have won with their last six consecutive runners at the meeting and since 2022, they’ve won 15 of the 19 races they’ve contested. Mad!

If you wanted to just focus on one day, their form for Thursday of the meeting is: 11111311711211611111111 for 19/23 and 83% SR!

Unsurpisingly, considering the names involved, plenty of these go off short enough, and the angle probably won’t come as a surprise to many, but as the numbers show, they’re still worth backing, which I will be doing this week, hopefully for a profit.

Just one for me tomorrow at Ayr, and it’s one that’s easily found in the market.

4.30 Ayr TAYGAR is the selection here, not least because of Michael Dod’s excellent recent record at the track, winning with his last 2 runners and 3 from his last 5. The 5yo also seems to love it here with form figures of 311, off marks of 70, 68 and 62. He goes off 62 today so is obviously well handicapped, especially as the third and most recent win were in class 4 events and today’s is a class 6. The run LTO should have brought him on nicely and with the ground not a cause for concern, he should be right up there. Not sure if it’s significant but Mulrennan takes the ride today having not ridden for Dodsy since February. He has ridden TAYGAR before though, 8 times infact, winning once. Probably nonsense but semi interesting nonetheless.

TAYGAR // 1pt Win @ 7/2 (Coral)

Sir Benedict just about nabbed a place yesterday for a tiny bit of profit. Still only the one winner on the blog though, but plenty of time to sort that out …

1.45 Bath In all honesty I should have probably left this one alone; a class 6 apprentice jockey handicap, but having looked at it I do think ALAZWAR has a decent chance, despite his rancid effort last week which I’m putting a line through as he can throw in a stinker or two, however today, I’m hoping is a going day as the 8yo is back on turf off a mark 5lbs lower than his Newbury win in June last year. He also drops into a class 6 for the first ever time on turf and with Brodie Hampson – by far the most experienced jockey on show here – can hopefully get involved.

ALAZWAR // 0.5pt E/W @ 11/2 (Paddy Power) BOG

4.15 Beverley Really keen on Mick Easterby’s CANONS HOUSE here who won four times last season, going up 2 stone in the process. That meant by the end of the season he was contesting some class 2 events, acquitting himself pretty well in most, winning at Southwell and finishing 5th at Goodwood. He had a decent return to action at Mussleburgh last month in another class 2 (on soft ground that may not suit) and today drops back into a class 4 for the first since winning at Hamilton last season off 79. He is still 8lbs higher than that but could well be a better horse nowadays, anyway. Midgeley has won this four times in the last nine years but think the selection could/should just have too much class for these.

CANONS HOUSE // 1pt Win @ 11/4 (Bet365) BOG

Pretty rubbish yesterday with the three selections finishing 4th, 7th and 5th. But the good news is there always another race …

5.00 Hamilton A low class affair but one in which I’m siding with Ben Haslam’s SIR BENEDICT, a very consisitent sort who on good ground in class 6 handicaps has form figures of 31425. Digital and Until Dawn should ensure there’s a good gallop for him to aim at as he needs to be produced late. Haslam who trains from one of the most picturesque yards I’ve ever seen has had a couple of winners of late and Joanna Mason interestingy (to me, anyway!) has her first ride on him – the 34th jockey to do so! Might just fall into place for him today at a track he has a decent record at: 5123716.

SIR BENEDICT // 0.5pt E/W @ 13/2 4 places (SkyBet)

Ah, Guineas day! What a day to be alive. But my focus for the blog today is in Yorkshire …

3.55 Thirsk Keeping this one very simple in the shape of KATS BOB who ticks a ton of boxes here. Ruth Carr’s 8yo is 3133 over 6f on GF ground and is 1lb lower than his last winning mark. He could well make all from a decent draw and looks an good each way bet to nothing.

KATS BOB // 0.5pt E/W @ 5/1 (Bet365) BOG

5.00 Thirsk Not a single one of these has won in the month of May, and I’ve found it difficult to make a case for any of them, but I do think PENSION POT might be worth (another) each way to bet nothing. Only 4 starts to his name and only beaten 3 lengths by a subsequent winner LTO he gets the nod against this lot and hoping William Pyle can have a double here.

PENSION POT // 0.5pt E/W @ 5/1 (Bet365) BOG

8.02 Doncaster I think MR COOL is overpriced here, and we’re getting double figure odds based on his recent form. However, all those runs have been on the AW where he is 0/11/4p and I’m hoping he’s a totally different proposition back on the turf where he is 12/2/5p. His 3 runs on turf as a 4yo resulte din form figures of 131 off marks of 77 (x2) and 72 and he’s now back in action here off 70 thanks to those AW runs. All best form on Good ground, and has only ran on GF twice and acquitted himself well finishing 4th both times so no real concerns there. Hoping for a decent run.

MR COOL // 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Bet365) BOG

It’s the first of May, the sun is shining and there’s some brilliant racing on offer today from Ascot, Newmarket and Goodwood. And if all that doesn’t get you all excited for the next 4 months or so of flat action, you may as well give up.

With all that said, there’s just the one bet for me on here, and it’s in the 4.20 at Ascot.

4.20 Ascot Top weights win flat handicaps more than their rivals and think ALL WAYS GLAMOROUS – top weight here – has a good chance in this. He has finished 2nd in his last 3 turf outings, all of them better races than this. Subsequently he is now off a career high mark but the return to good to firm ground (2112 in handicaps) can eek out some more improvement for this 5yo who can go well fresh (2nd on reapperance last term) for Gina Mangan who is 9/2/7p on him. Should be definitely in the shake-up from a decent draw.

ALL WAYS GLAMOROUS // 0.5pt E/W @ 10/1 BOG (Bet365) 5 places

The last day of April and the flat really is about to kick into action for the brilliant few months between the Guineas and the Ebor. We’re not quite there yet, though, so it’s over to Costa Del Redcar for a selection that may see me end the month in the black …

3.58 Redcar I like the chances of Miss Rainbow but I’m concerned about the ground for her and fear it may be just a touch too firm (all wins on good). Beerwah is currently the favourite but for me at 15/8 is way too short for one who’s only 1/15 and that win was on soft. So the one I’ve landed on at a double figure price is ZUFFOLO for Michael Dods. The 6yo may not get his own way at the front of affairs and has been in real iffy form of late. But that does mean that when you take Rhys Elliot’s claim into account, he’s now lurking – by some way – on a career low mark of effectively 52. This is 5lbs lower than his last win on the AW, 10lbs better off than his last run over C&D and both 5lbs and 19lbs better off than his wins over C&D. Obviously there’s a huge chance – as there is with all these low grade races – that he just doesn’t fancy it, but he might just pop up today.

ZUFFOLO // 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 (Paddy Power) BOG

Not had much time for the formbook over the last few days, but I’m at least bookending the working week with a couple of selections and you never know, one might be my first winner of the flat season …

1.40 Doncaster This looks to be the sort of race where CANARIA QUEEN does her best work. On good or better, in class 6s over 5f in the last 2 years she is 3541172 which is some of the best form on offer here, albeit it’s a super competitive event. Tim Easterby has been in great nick the last couple of days and at double figure odds, this 6yo could go well and will surely benefit from the pipe opener LTO.

CANARIA QUEEN // 0.5pt E/W @ 14/1 5 places (Bet365) BOG

2.15 Doncaster Another low grade affair and I should maybe have left it alone, but after going through it, I think YAFAARR is worth a bet. He may well have needed his run LTO (all form from breaks of 30 days or less) and that was only his second flat handicap – before that he’s finished a very close 3rd at Redcar. First time tongue tie goes on today and if that has an effect, then this 4yo looks to be open to improvement for Sam England who two places at Beverley yesterday so might just be coming into some form.

YAFAARR // 0.5pt E/W @ 18/1 5 places (Bet365) BOG